IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives

Full Text of the Main Report

Executive Summary

Full Report by Sections
Foreword
1. Introduction, Motivation, and Main Findings
2. Evaluation Framework
3. The WEO Forecasting Process
4. The Quality of IMF Forecasts
5. Medium-Term Forecasts
6. Forecasts in the Context of IMF-Supported Programs
7. Recommendations
Statement by the Managing Director on the IEO Evaluation
Summing Up of the Executive Board Discussion
Annexes
1. Forecast Errors of GDP Growth
2. The Quality of Growth and Inflation Forecasts for G20 Countries
3. Medium-Term Analysis Through Risk Assessments and Scenarios
Background Papers
1. An Assessment of IMF Medium-Term Forecasts of GDP Growth
Series Number: BP/14/01
Author: Carlos de Resende
2. An Evaluation of Commissioned Studies Assessing the Accuracy of IMF Forecasts
Series Number: BP/14/02
Author: Charles Freedman
3. The IMF/WEO Forecast Process
Series Number: BP/14/03
Authors: Hans Genberg, Andrew Martinez, and Michael Salemi
4. On the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey and Some Extensions
Series Number: BP/14/04
Authors: Hans Genberg and Andrew Martinez
5. IMF Forecasts in the Context of Program Countries
Series Number: BP/14/05
Author: Francesco Luna
Background Documents
1. User Perspectives on IMF Forecasts: Survey Methodology and Results
Authors: Hans Genberg and Andrew Martinez
2. IMF Training on Forecasting Methods and Forecast Interpretation
Author: Francesco Luna
Press Release
IEO Releases Report on IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives
Follow Up
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation of IMF Forecasts - Process, Quality, and Country Perspective

Contact Info

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